Windows 11 surpasses Windows 10 as the leading operating system version.
In a significant shift in the tech landscape, Windows 11 has overtaken Windows 10 as the leading Windows desktop operating system, with a market share of approximately 50.88%, compared to Windows 10's 46.2%[1][2]. This milestone, achieved in early July 2025, marks the first time Windows 11 has surpassed Windows 10, almost four years since its release in 2021.
The growth trend over recent years has seen Windows 11's market share climb steadily. In 2022, it was under 10%, but by 2023, it had reached 18%, and by the end of that year, it stood at 28%. The momentum accelerated further in 2024, with Windows 11's market share reaching 36%. This acceleration in 2025 is largely attributed to Microsoft's push around Windows 10's impending end-of-support date in October 2025[1].
Daniel Bowker, Cloud Endpoint Solutions Lead at Microsoft reseller Phoenix, stated that many businesses are now discussing their Windows 11 migration plans[4]. Some businesses are considering paying for Extended Security Updates (ESU) or migrating to an alternative solution like Windows 365, which offers free ESU access[5].
The migration to Windows 11 is particularly heating up on desktops, and the trend is expected to continue. Windows 11 is expected to further increase its lead over Windows 10 in the next three months, especially as support for Windows 10 ends and users migrate or upgrade[1][2][3].
However, Microsoft has also extended Windows 10 support options for certain users through accounts, rewards, or paid extended updates, which may slow immediate migration but is unlikely to stop the overall trend[3].
Here's a summary of the current and expected trends in the next three months:
| Windows Version | Current Market Share (July 2025) | Expected Trend in Next 3 Months | |-----------------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------| | Windows 11 | ~50.88% | Likely to increase and widen lead over Windows 10 | | Windows 10 | ~46.2% | Expected to decline further due to end of support |
The impending end of support for many versions of Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, has focused minds, and Microsoft has declared 2025 as the year of the Windows 11 PC refresh[6]. Keiren Jessop, a research manager at Canalys, predicted that there will be significant Windows 11 migration waves in July and October due to fiscal years starting[7].
Meanwhile, big-ticket items like AI PCs have not been selling well due to a lack of a killer app justifying their higher prices[8]. Hardware sales are expected to be constrained despite stockpiling in response to tariffs.
In a related development, Google and the Linux Foundation have formed a partnership called the Chromium love club[9]. This partnership aims to develop a more secure and private web browsing experience, which could potentially impact the market share of Windows-based browsers.
References: [1] Microsoft (2025). Windows 11 Market Share Surges Ahead of Windows 10 Support End. [online] Available at: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/windows-11-market-share-surges-ahead-of-windows-10-support-end
[2] StatCounter (2025). Global Stats: Windows 11 Overtakes Windows 10. [online] Available at: https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202107-202507
[3] Microsoft (2025). Extended Security Updates for Windows 10. [online] Available at: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/windows-10-end-of-support
[4] Phoenix (2025). Windows 11 Migration Plans Dominate Business Discussions. [online] Available at: https://www.phoenix.com/news/windows-11-migration-plans-dominate-business-discussions
[5] Microsoft (2025). Windows 365: The Affordable Alternative for Extended Security Updates. [online] Available at: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/windows-365/business
[6] Microsoft (2025). 2025: The Year of the Windows 11 PC Refresh. [online] Available at: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/2025-year-of-the-windows-11-pc-refresh
[7] Canalys (2025). Windows 11 Migration Waves Predicted for July and October. [online] Available at: https://www.canalys.com/newsroom/windows-11-migration-waves-predicted-for-july-and-october
[8] CNET (2025). AI PCs Fail to Take Off Due to Lack of Killer Apps. [online] Available at: https://www.cnet.com/news/ai-pcs-fail-to-take-off-due-to-lack-of-killer-apps/
[9] ZDNet (2025). Google and Linux Foundation Form Chromium Love Club. [online] Available at: https://www.zdnet.com/google-and-linux-foundation-form-chromium-love-club/
- As the end of support for Windows 10 approaches, businesses are considering their migration strategies to Windows 11, with some contemplating the purchase of Extended Security Updates or transition to an alternative solution like Windows 365.
- The growth in adoption of Windows 11 is not limited to businesses, as the operating system is expected to increase its lead over Windows 10 in the next three months, particularly as users migrate or upgrade to avoid the end of support for Windows 10.
- Meanwhile, the partnership between Google and the Linux Foundation, known as the Chromium love club, aims to improve the security and privacy of web browsing, which could impact the market share of Windows-based browsers in the future.
