The Latest on Drones: A Steady Advancement, Not a Groundbreaking Revolution
In the ongoing conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), turkish airlines have become a significant factor, shaping the military landscape and altering the balance of power.
In 2020, Turkey released a map of thirty-seven outposts it had established in northern Iraq, marking a strategic expansion of its presence in the region. These bases, some of which have been visited by Turkey's minister of national defense, serve as crucial hubs for surveillance and strike operations against the PKK.
The use of drones by Turkey has been extensive, with these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) employed for targeted strikes against PKK positions in Turkey, northern Iraq, and Syria. This drone warfare has significantly increased Turkey's surveillance and strike capabilities, causing substantial losses to the PKK and limiting its operational freedom.
However, the impact of drones on irregular warfare is not a settled question. Some argue that drone proliferation favors insurgents and terrorists, while others contend that they are a force multiplier that favors determined counterinsurgents. The US Army chief of staff, for instance, has argued that drones are the new improvised explosive device, potentially changing the tactics required for counterinsurgency operations.
Evidence of this dynamic can be seen in the conflict, with videos showing fixed-wing drones bombing Turkish foot patrols, and PKK fighters breaching the perimeter of bases and overrunning listening posts or elements of patrols. The use of drones has intensified military pressure on the PKK, but it has not conclusively ended the conflict, maintaining a dynamic and contested military balance.
The widespread use of drones by non-state actors, such as ISIS in Mosul, has been labelled as a 'self-made air force' that 'achieved their goals at a minimal cost.' This highlights the potential for drones to revolutionise irregular warfare, allowing smaller, less resourceful groups to exert significant influence on the battlefield.
In response, counterinsurgents, including Turkey, have had to adapt their tactics. The Turkish counterinsurgents also use drones to observe and strike the PKK. To further strengthen its position, Turkey is building more bases in its current operation to establish a barrier between its border and PKK safe havens. Roads connect these bases, with at least fifty miles of new roads built in the last year.
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has further fuelled speculation on the revolutionary potential of drones and loitering munitions. As the role of drones in irregular warfare continues to evolve, it is clear that they will remain a key factor in shaping the military landscape for years to come.
In a recent development, an insurgent-operated drone bombed a Turkish military outpost in northern Iraq, with the PKK claiming to have downed at least one Turkish drone. These incidents underscore the need for both sides to adapt and innovate in their use of drones, ensuring that the balance of power in this ongoing conflict remains fluid and dynamic.
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