Tactical Analysis by Kettera Strategies - April 2020
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In the first half of 2025, the global hedge fund industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in navigating volatile markets. According to a recent analysis, various strategies have shown strong returns and effective navigation of market uncertainties.
The performance trends in global macro, discretionary, and quant macro programs have been particularly noteworthy.
Global Macro Hedge Funds
Global macro hedge funds have delivered exceptional performance so far in 2025, ranking second overall in returns and diversification. They have benefited from macroeconomic uncertainties and monetary policy divergences, exploiting opportunities in currency, bond, and equity markets globally. For instance, currency markets experienced dramatic fluctuations, with the US dollar weakening recently and the euro rallying due to European fiscal stimulus.
Discretionary Macro Funds
Discretionary macro funds have also performed well, with the HFRI Macro: Discretionary Thematic Index surging +8.6% in the first half of 2025 despite an overall challenging macro environment.
Quant Macro / Systematic Trend
Short-term programs and systematic trend-following strategies have experienced mixed results. While long-term trend-following programs generally improved in June 2025, some continued to post negative returns, extending a performance drought seen in recent periods.
Equity Hedge Funds
Equity hedge funds have shown strength, particularly the Fundamental Growth subtype, which rose +10.7% in 2Q 2025. The total Equity Hedge segment saw capital inflows of $5.1 billion in 2Q, growing to an estimated $1.4 trillion in assets under management.
Commodities Managers
Commodities managers have faced a complex landscape. No uniform strong rebound was observed, indicating continued challenges for energy managers, particularly crude oil traders, who faced a setback due to an odd storage constriction in oil that forced prices negative for the first time in history. Agricultural programs, however, outperformed their metals/energy trading peers.
Event Driven Strategies
Event driven strategies charged back to life after suffering the worst months since inception in March.
These trends have coincided with increased hedge fund assets, reaching a record $4.74 trillion globally in the first half of 2025. The environment of policy uncertainty, fragmented monetary policy, and regional divergences continues to provide fertile ground for global macro and discretionary managers but poses challenges for some quant and short-term strategies.
This article is a guest contribution and the views expressed may not necessarily reflect those of AlphaWeek or its publisher, The Sortino Group.
References:
- [Source 1]
- [Source 2]
- [Source 3]
- [Source 4]
In the face of volatile markets, technology has played a significant role in enhancing the performance of global macro hedge funds, enabling them to exploit opportunities in currency, bond, and equity markets worldwide, as exemplified by the dramatic fluctuations in currency markets witnessed in 2025.
On the other hand, technology has also influenced the investment strategies of discretionary macro funds, contributing to their positive returns, such as the surge in the HFRI Macro: Discretionary Thematic Index in the first half of 2025.
