Stock Pigs Retreating around Midday Hour
In the current market trend for lean hog futures in late July 2025, a generally bullish to steady outlook prevails, with some recent minor pullbacks. The CME lean hog index, for instance, reached a high of $110.28 by July 24, reflecting strong producer confidence and supply tightening [1].
August lean hog futures, which dipped slightly by 17.5 cents to $108.525 as of July 28, 2025, remain in an overall uptrend since mid-July lows [2]. This trend is backed by the CME lean hog index, which rose to about $110.28, with the national five-day rolling average cash hog price at $113.39 [2].
Pork cutout values have been rising, with gains in bellies and hams contributing to a cutout value of $121.06, indicating strong demand at the wholesale level [2]. Technical analysis shows bulls having the near-term advantage, with key resistance levels at $109.00 and $110.00, and support around $107.00 to $105.875 [2].
However, hog slaughter volumes have increased modestly in 2025, with pork output up 1.3%, but export demand has softened recently [3]. Weekly pork export sales have weakened, falling 30% from the previous week and 48% from the prior 4-week average. Exports have also declined 12% week-over-week, with primary export destinations including Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Canada, China, and South Korea [3].
All primas except the ham were reported higher in USDA's Friday morning report, with the rib experiencing a $15.43 gain [1]. USDA's national base hog price had a weighted average of $109.26 in the Friday AM report, down $4.55 from the previous report [1]. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 475,000 head for Thursday [1].
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In conclusion, lean hog futures market is cautiously optimistic with solid cash and wholesale demand, although some recent price consolidation and weakening export sales suggest a watchful stance going forward. Weather stress on animals and technical resistance levels may also influence near-term price action [2].
[1] CME Group, Lean Hog Futures Market Report, July 24, 2025. [2] CME Group, Lean Hog Futures Market Report, July 28, 2025. [3] USDA, Pork Export Sales Report, July 28, 2025.
- Despite the steady outlook in the lean hog futures market, with strong demand at the wholesale level and a bullish trend, some investors may want to consider technology-focused investments in the finance sector as a diversification strategy, given the potential impact of weakening export sales and price consolidation.
- In light of the forecasted near-term influence of weather stress on animals and technical resistance levels, sports enthusiasts might find it intriguing to explore investment opportunities in the sports industry, as a shift in focus from the lean hog market could offer a unique prospect for financial gains.
