Soybeans Experiencing a Drop on Tuesday
Soybean Prices Continue to Fall Below $10 Per Bushel in US
In the latest development, soybean prices in the US are experiencing a downward trend, with old crop soybeans falling below $10 per bushel as of late July 2025 [2][4]. This decline is attributed to rising stocks and subdued acreage reductions, according to the USDA's projections for the 2025/26 season-average soybean price, which is expected to be around $10.10 per bushel [1][5].
The USDA's Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon revealed that 76% of the US bean crop is currently blooming, with 41% setting pods [2]. However, these favorable weather conditions and strong supply have so far mitigated any significant price gains [1][3].
In contrast, Brazil's soybean crop estimate for 2025/26 has increased to approximately 182.9 million metric tons (MMT), up from 173.5 MMT in 2024/25 [2]. This larger supply is likely to support global bearish sentiment on prices. Weather and China's purchasing behavior are critical factors to monitor, as they influence demand [3].
Here's a summary of the current market outlook:
| Market | Trend (mid-2025) | Forecast / Price Range | Key Drivers | |------------|--------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | US | Prices weakening; below $10 for old crop soybeans | Season average around $10.10/bu (USDA); weak soybean oil prices ~$0.46-$0.53/lb | Rising stocks (+4% carryover), only marginal acreage decrease, favorable weather, export competition, EPA RVOs support domestic demand | | Brazil | Larger 2025/26 crop estimate (182.9 MMT), implying ample global supply | Larger supply could pressure prices, but specifics depend on weather and demand | Crop size, weather conditions, China demand, export dynamics |
In the US, soybean futures are continuing with weakness, with Soymeal down $3.10 to $3.20, New Crop Cash at $9.52 ½ (down 7 ¼ cents), and Nearby Cash at $9.44 ¼ (down 11 cents) [2]. Soy Oil is also experiencing a rise, with prices 17 to 27 points higher on the day [2].
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In Tuesday's midday trading, soybeans are currently 6 to 11 ½ cents lower [2]. As of Aug 25, Soybeans are at $9.77 ¼ (down 11 ½ cents), and Sep 25 Soybeans are at $9.85 (down 7 ½ cents) [2]. The national average new crop Cash Bean price is also down 6 ½ cents at $9.52 ½ [2]. Condition ratings have improved slightly, with a 2% increase in the good/excellent categories [2].
Brugler500 has improved 5 points to 378 [2]. August and September Soybean prices are also down, with Aug 25 Soybeans at $9.77 ¼ and Sep 25 Soybeans at $9.85 [2].
Overall, the market outlook through late 2025 suggests that soybean prices are under pressure in both the US and Brazil due to strong supplies and subdued acreage gains. However, domestic policies (EPA volume obligations) and weather remain crucial uncertainties that could affect prices upward if supply disruptions occur [1][2][3][5].
- The decline in soybean prices below $10 per bushel in the US could potentially influence the adoption of advanced agricultural technologies, as farmers seek to maximize yield and reduce costs in response to lower profits.
- The rising stocks and subdued acreage reductions in the US soybean market, as indicated by the USDA's projections, suggest that technology innovations aimed at improving efficiency and reducing waste in the agricultural sector may become increasingly important as the industry responds to these market dynamics.
