Soybeans completed the day on the downside of no change in value.
Soybean futures for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to experience mixed trends, as indicated by recent forecasts. While U.S. soybean oil prices may face downward pressure in the short term, soybean futures prices are projected to be slightly higher than the 2024/25 average.
U.S. soybean oil prices are forecast to fall or remain weak through July and August 2025 due to higher soybean stocks and only a slight decrease in planted acreage. Favorable U.S. weather conditions are supporting strong crop growth, increasing supply and putting downward pressure on soybean oil prices.
However, for the 2025/26 marketing year, soybean futures prices are projected to be slightly higher. This is attributed to a lower total U.S. planted acreage and strong domestic demand supported by EPA Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). These RVOs encourage biofuel blending, which in turn increases soybean crush demand.
Global factors, such as Brazil and Argentina's continued strong production and export volumes, are also expected to influence the soybean market. Brazil's record crop and increasing biodiesel blending mandates beginning in August will likely support domestic soybean processing, which could influence global soybean demand.
Despite these positive factors, market uncertainties persist. U.S.-China trade tensions can cause price volatility, and crucial variables to monitor are U.S. weather outcomes and ethanol/biodiesel policy developments, both of which could significantly impact planting and crush decisions in the U.S. and South America.
Overall, the global soybean market is relatively balanced but with a bearish tone for soybean oil prices in the near term and slightly bullish for soybean futures prices due to demand-side support from biofuels and lower acreage planting. Weather and trade developments remain key risks that could alter this outlook.
In other soybean market news, the national average new crop Cash Bean price was down 1/2 cent today at $9.76 3/4. Soybeans for Sep 25 closed at $10.08, down 2 1/2 cents. Soymeal futures have gained 30 cents to $3.30/ton, while Soy Oil was pressured by crude oil weakness, down 35 to 44 points. Nearby Cash soybeans were $9.73 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents. The USDA's Crop Progress report showed 62% of the U.S. bean crop blooming, with 26% setting pods. Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to total 12.11 MMT in July, down from the 12.19 MMT from last week's estimate. Soybeans for Nov 25 closed at $10.25 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Technology plays a significant role in predicting and analyzing soybean market trends, using data from weather forecasting systems and global production statistics to inform decisions. The EPA Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) encourage biofuel blending, a key factor boosting soybean crush demand and supporting slightly higher soybean futures prices.
