September Survival Necessary for Bitcoin Bulls before Q4 Optimism, Says Analyst
In the cryptocurrency market, renowned analyst Josh Olszewicz expects a challenging September before a potential bullish breakout in the fourth quarter for Bitcoin. Here are the key price levels and technical triggers that will determine Bitcoin’s trajectory in this seasonal period.
Price Predictions
Olszewicz believes that a daily close above $121,000–$122,000 is critical for a bullish reversal, signalling a move towards the next major psychological and technical target of $150,000. Conversely, a close below $100,000 in October would raise serious concerns about the end of the current bull cycle. As of early August 2025, Bitcoin is rangebound or "chopping" near $113,000. If no breakout occurs, it may trade in a neutral/consolidation range roughly between $95,000 and $115,000.
Technical Triggers and Indicators
The 20-week moving average around $104,000 acts as an important support threshold. Closing below it, especially in October, would be bearish. The Ichimoku Cloud indicator is crucial, with a potential bearish Tenkan-Sen/Kijun-Sen (TK) cross acting as a sell signal. Olszewicz monitors this sequence of technicals on the daily chart, first a TK bearish cross, then a close inside the Ichimoku cloud, which would flip his bias towards a bearish outlook.
Seasonality and Market Context
Historically, August and September are weak or rangebound months, with Q4 often showing stronger bullish activity. Olszewicz warns traders to be patient through September's expected grind and to watch for signs of a pickup in October, which historically tends to be a strong month for Bitcoin. Institutional interest appears tentative, with commitment of traders (COT) data showing declining commercial long positions, adding to the cautious near-term outlook.
In summary, Olszewicz's bullish Q4 scenario depends on Bitcoin clearing the $121,000–$122,000 resistance decisively, avoiding a drop below key moving averages, and not triggering bearish Ichimoku signals. If those conditions are met, Bitcoin could resume a strong uptrend towards $150,000 in Q4. Otherwise, the market may remain rangebound or risk a deeper correction by October.
- Despite Josh Olszewicz anticipating a tough September, he expects a potential bullish breakout in the fourth quarter for Bitcoin, particularly if it manages to close above $121,000–$122,000.
- In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's trajectory in the upcoming seasonal period will be largely determined by key price levels and technical triggers, such as the 20-week moving average and the Ichimoku Cloud indicator.
- Olszewicz stresses the importance of October, as a close below $100,000 in that month could raise concerns about the end of the current bull cycle for Bitcoin.
- The subsequent move towards the next major psychological and technical target of $150,000 would require Bitcoin to avoid a drop below crucial moving averages and steer clear of bearish Ichimoku signals.
- Institutional interest, as indicated by the declining commercial long positions in commitment of traders (COT) data, adds to the cautious near-term outlook for Bitcoin, emphasizing the need for patience in September and careful monitoring throughout the seasonal period.
