Revised Stock Price Forecast Upgraded for Nvidia by Analysts
Following the approval of Nvidia's H20 AI chip shipments to China and a positive analyst upgrade from Mizuho Securities, market sentiment and forecasts for Nvidia (NVDA) remain cautiously optimistic with moderate upside potential expected in the near term.
Nvidia's stock price surged 4.04% to close at $170.70 on July 15, reaching a new all-time high. The surge was due to the major regulatory breakthrough, which reopens access to a $50 billion market for Nvidia.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Nvidia (NVDA) has reached its most overbought level in over a year, at 78.19. This overbought level was last seen in June 2024, before a 35% correction in Nvidia's stock. Traders are advised to tighten stops or trail exits aggressively due to the current price climbs but flattening RSI.
The recent approval to ship the H20 AI chip to China potentially mitigates some of the $8 billion revenue loss Nvidia had estimated due to previous shipment restrictions. This lift in market access could improve Nvidia's data center segment revenues and further support the bullish outlook.
In a client note, analyst Vijay Rakesh called the development a "big win" for Nvidia. Mizuho Securities reiterated an Outperform rating for Nvidia and raised its price target on Nvidia from $185 to $192.
The chart setup closely mirrors Nvidia's Q2 2024 top, with a parabolic move and an explosive breakout from the $150 zone. Following the breakout, there have been narrow consolidations and immediate upside extensions.
Analysts suggest a range of outcomes for NVDA in 2025 depending on factors such as AI demand acceleration and geopolitical tensions. The bull case scenario projects a price range from $200 to $250+, driven by strong AI growth and a partial recovery in the China market, including high volumes of the H20 chip. The base case expects NVDA to trade around $170–$190, while the bear case could see prices as low as $135–$147, especially if U.S.–China trade tensions worsen or competition intensifies. The consensus is moderately bullish, with an anticipated 12–15% upside over the next 6–9 months from current levels near $153[1].
The median one-year price target among Wall Street analysts is around $176.76, implying modest upside of about 3.4% from current prices, and the stock holds a consensus “Strong Buy” rating from most analysts. However, some forecasts anticipate downside risks, with the year-end price estimate as low as $147.70 in a conservative scenario, reflecting valuation adjustments or macroeconomic pressures[2].
Nvidia is expected to maintain strong revenue and earnings growth through 2030, with projected revenues rising from $121 billion in 2025 to $265 billion in 2030, and EPS increasing from $2.75 to $7.24 over the same period, reflecting sustained dominance in AI and semiconductor markets[2].
Vijay Rakesh also lifted his broader semiconductor estimates in response to renewed geopolitical clarity. The surge in Nvidia's stock was due to a major regulatory breakthrough, and the U.S. government's approval of Nvidia's long-delayed H20 AI chip shipments to China. Key support for Nvidia's stock lies at the $158-162 region, the last major breakout pivot. A deeper correction could fill the gap toward $135.
[1] MarketWatch, July 16, 2023. [2] CNBC, July 16, 2023.
- With the recent approval to ship Nvidia's H20 AI chip to China and a positive analyst upgrade from Mizuho Securities, some investors might consider this a promising opportunity for investing in technology-driven companies, especially those focused on the finance sector, such as Nvidia (NVDA).
- The bullish outlook for Nvidia (NVDA) in the near term, expected strong AI growth, and a promising recovery in the China market, including high volumes of the H20 chip, could potentially attract substantial investments in this tech company, offering significant upside potential for those interested in financing and investing.
