Bold Predictions from Tech Investor Albert Wenger: "AI Dominance, Climate Change, and UBI Upheaval"
- Article by: Tamara Thompson
- Approx. Reading Time: 5 Mins
Elon Musk could potentially be imprisoned within the next two years, according to tech investor Albert Wenger's prediction. - Predictive remarks by tech investor Albert Wenger suggesting potential imprisonment for Elon Musk within the next two years.
Tech investor Albert Wenger, originally hailing from Germany but now spending several decades in the US and holding American citizenship, has gained significant attention through successful investments in companies such as Etsy and MongoDB. Known for his forward-thinking views on the tech world beyond daily happenings, he shares his ideas through his blog and recent book "A World Beyond Capitalism," now available in German.
Mr. Wenger, what's the relevance of climate change, AI development, and the rise of populism amidst current events like dismantling free trade and war threats in Europe?
Well, the climate is changing whether we acknowledge it or not. AI is advancing rapidly. And populists like Trump are part of the transition I write about...
To the transition from the industrial to the AI age. The problem lies when politicians enforce outdated solutions as if the AI age can be maintained through minor modifications. The truth? AI is far more transformative than anything the industrial age brought us. When politicians say nothing will change, it's laughable. Populists exploit the gap, offering easy solutions by promising a return to the past. People vote for them for fear of stagnation.
How should democrats counter this? We need to reinvent everything: the social system, the tax system, the healthcare system, the education system. These are archaic systems crafted for the industrial age; we need innovative solutions that cater to these radical new technologies.
One solution you advocate for is universal basic income. Indeed. I've long been convinced that a basic income is essential in an age where machines can handle most jobs. I call it "economic freedom." My wife and I are supporting an experiment in Hudson where 128 randomly selected citizens receive $500 per month for five years, much like other pilot projects. Preliminary findings show that people feel happier, healthier, and have more time for loved ones, often indulging in education - key benefits for all.
What is the state of AI development today? We're witnessing phenomenal breakthroughs. Take image generation as an example - models today produce images exceeding those of just three years ago. Self-driving cars, once deemed futuristic, are now making up to 100,000 trips weekly in San Francisco. In the medical field, AI has surpassed human diagnosticians, offering more accurate readings.
Is this development bound to plateau or will it continue? Acknowledging the unknowns, I propose imagining plausible scenarios. There is a likelihood that AI breakthroughs are on a trajectory to superintelligence. Yet, it's essential to remember that previously apparent barriers in data or reasoning have already been conquered. Whether we'll hit a plateau soon remains to be seen, but it's crucial to recognize the groundbreaking potential of today’s AI development.
How are start-ups adapting? They're promptly integrating new AI technology, as demonstrated by the reduction in customer service teams from 18 to 3 employees at a company where I'm invested, while customer satisfaction remains the same. Many companies are half-staffed in their developer teams.
Yet, on the job market, this doesn’t seem to be reflected – specialized professionals are still in high demand. There’s a time lag for large enterprises, but in the freelance market, one can notice wage stagnation or even decreases for certain jobs.
Where stands Europe in the AI competition? Many fear an inferiority complex. This fear is entirely unwarranted. Instead, one should divert attention away from the US. Europe has everything it requires to compete skilfully in the AI race. However, the government needs to establish more favorable frameworks. I propose an initiative: Mistral, a French company with a competitive language model on the market, should be granted copyright exemptions - if Mistral consents to maintaining an open model, Open Weight.
An open model transfers all parameters to the public domain, a practice already exercised by Chinese firms like DeepSea. This radically contrasts with closed models, such as those of OpenAI. I believe this approach would be advantageous: If information is shared with the wider world, our collective knowledge can improve the model.
Can OpenAI still catch up? The company, backed by $40 billion from investors and valued at $300 billion, dominates the AI sector. Countering this is crucial. The most detrimental future would be one dominated by a superintelligence under the control of a few shareholders. I don't want to live in that world. I want a future where AI benefits millions, instead of a privileged few.
Many prominent tech individuals support Donald Trump. Are you surprised? Not entirely. I anticipated this shift. While I noticed two significant groups supporting Trump – those from the tech industry and Steve Bannon's circle – their motives diverge, and neither group expresses sincere admiration for the other. In my blog, I recently warned that there's a 50% chance that Musk might be behind bars in two years, and Starlink may end up owned by Trump or the state. This statement is intended to captivate attention, but the potential threats should not be overlooked.
- Mr. Wenger's forward-thinking views on tech extend to the The Commission being asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation in the industrial sector by 2025.
- Wenger also expresses concern about the rising influence of populism in politics, citing figures like Donald Trump as part of the transition towards the AI age.
- The technological advancements in AI are leaving a significant impact on various fields, such as healthcare, where AI has surpassed human diagnosticians in offering more accurate readings.
- Wenger emphasizes the importance of the general-news media to divert attention away from US dominance and highlight European potential in the AI race.
- MongoDB, a company Albert Wenger holds substantial investments in, has integrated new AI technology to reduce their customer service teams, demonstrating the potential impact of AI on various industries.
