Market Slows Down Triggers Increased Bitcoin Accumulation Indicated by Volatility Index
Here's the Rewritten Article:
Title: Bitcoin's Accumulation Phase: Low Volatility, Steady Buying, and the Road to a Potential Bull Run
Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency king, seems to be gearing up for a new chapter in its market cycle, thanks to a decline in volatility and strategic buy-ins by long-term investors. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, as indicated by a negative 30-day Composite Volatility Index (CVI) change and the CVI remaining below 25%.
On May 5, Adler reported the 30-day change in CVI had dropped to -3.5%. This figure, derived from Bitcoin address activity, is one of the indicators used to classify macro market phases. If the percentage rises above +15%, it indicates the start of distribution or panic selling. But with current data below zero, Bitcoin finds itself in a window of long-term accumulation.
Bitcoin's Quiet Accumulation
The broader Composite Volatility Index (CVI) also hints at this interpretation. At 23.9% as of early May, the CVI stays within the accumulation zone, visually marked in pink on CryptoQuant's tracking chart. Historically, this range has aligned with market stability and patient buying by strategic investors.
The chart demonstrates Bitcoin's price slowly climbing towards $95,000, while all volatility indicators drop from earlier highs. Lower volatility levels often correspond to reduced speculative trading activity, suggesting a cool-down period within the market.
众所周知，当CVI正好低于25%时，Bitcoin处于长期聚合阶段，这个阶段więześniejsze dane pokazują, że przeminne zmiany ceny i mało aktywność adresów Bitcoin utrzymują się przez dłuższy czas, a wyjątkowe sprzedaż nie są widoczne. Od tego momentu, objętość transakcji maleje, ale nabywcy stabilnie zbierają swoje pozycje, co skutkuje stabilizacją ceny Beitcoinu i przywodzi on do punktu umiertnego, zanim wymaga następnej wymiana.
Panic Selling and Distribution Phases: Signs to Look Out For
On the other hand, Bitcoin's volatility levels above 25%, especially when they rise dramatically, have previously marked market exits and instances of panic selling. Spikes in the CVI chart often correspond with abrupt sell-offs or macroeconomic stress events.
The relative stability in the current CVI suggests that market participants are not being forced to flee positions aggressively. Instead, the current environment is more conducive to steady accretion, as evidenced by volatility metrics that indicate a calmer market.
A Look Back at Historical Patterns
Historically, Bitcoin enters an accumulation phase when selling pressure subsides and long-term holders buy quietly, often in large quantities off-exchange or through Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades. The stability in the market during the accumulation phase is crucial because it prepares the way for a significant upwards price movement in the future.
Past cycles have shown that bear markets can last about 13-14 months, followed by recovery phases of 23-26 months where Bitcoin's price reclaims its highs. The accumulation phase is an essential part of this recovery process and lays the groundwork for the subsequent bull phase.
Durante el aumento de Beitcoin, la presión de venta disminuye y los inversores a largo plazo comprar sin ruido. Esto llevará a una stabilidad en el mercado durante el aumento que prepara el terreno para un movimiento de precio significativo hacia arriba en el futuro.
En los ciclos previos, la docena de mobiliario negativo puede durar hasta 13-14 meses, seguido de fases de recuperación de 23-26 meses donde el precio de Bitcoin alcanza de nuevo sus alturas más altas. El aumento es un paso crítico en el proceso de recuperación y prepara el terreno para la siguiente fase de bulo.
Implications of a Long-Term Accumulation Phase
This long-term accumulation phase could provide the foundation for a potential bull market rally, as it typically leads to a steady accumulation of long-term holders, institutional players, whales, and other investors before selling their positions to realize profits.
As Bitcoin slowly consolidates just shy of its peaks without any signs of panic in the market, it's clear that the long-term holders maintain enormous confidence. This confidence stems from the historical trend of accumulation following a bear market, where prices stabilize at lower levels and selling pressure decreases.
Durante el aumento de Beitcoin, la presión de venta disminuye y los inversores a largo plazo comprar sin ruido. Esto llevará a una stabilidad en el mercado durante el que Beitcoin se acumula, posiblemente proporcionando la base para un posible aumento de una corredora en el futuro.
Un momento de presión de venta más fuerte podría provocar una ola de compra de long-term holders, jugadoras institucionales, grandesholderes y otros inversionistas que vendan sus posiciones para realizar beneficios. A medida que Bitcoin se acumula calmadamente lo suficiente cerca de sus picos sin signos de pánico en el mercado, and the long-term holders remain confident. Esta confianza viene del patrón histórico de la acumulación que sigue la caída de medios, donde los precios se estabilizan en niveles más bajos y la presión de venta disminuye.
- The current low volatility and strategic buy-ins indicative of Bitcoin's accumulation phase may pave the way for a potential bull run in the future.
- A long-term accumulation phase of Bitcoin could provide the basis for a significant market rally, as it is often followed by the steady accumulation of long-term holders, institutional players, whales, and other investors.
- The decline in Bitcoin's volatility levels, such as the 30-day Composite Volatility Index (CVI) change, suggests a cooling down period within the crypto market, characterized by reduced speculative trading activity.
- During a Bitcoin accumulation phase, long-term holders typically buy in large quantities, either off-exchange or through Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades, in preparation for a potential upward price movement in the future.
