Global Climate Outlook: China's Role in the Future of the Southern World Regions
**China's Transformative yet Complex Role in Global Green Transition**
In recent years, China has made significant strides in its role as a global leader in the green transition, with a focus on clean energy, climate finance, and the extraction of key energy transition minerals. This shift has far-reaching implications, particularly for developing countries.
**Clean Energy Leadership and Emissions**
China has emerged as a global leader in clean energy, ranking 12th out of 118 countries on the *Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025* report. In 2025, China saw a 1% decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, marking the first time this milestone was achieved despite rising economic activity and energy demand. However, this progress does not yet signify that China has fully met its 2030 peak emissions pledge.
**Critical Minerals and Mining**
China dominates the global production and consumption of critical transition minerals essential for green technologies, such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. Through investments under its Belt and Road Initiative (B&R), China has been particularly active overseas, spending a record $21.4 billion on mining activities. However, concerns about environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues have arisen due to China's overseas mining operations.
**Climate Finance and Developing Countries**
China has become a key driver of the green transition in the global south by exporting technology, finance, and investment that enable the deployment of low-carbon solutions. In 2024, China's solar panel exports to developing countries surged by 32%, surpassing exports to developed economies for the first time. This trend makes clean technologies more accessible and affordable for developing countries, accelerating their energy transitions.
**Implications and Impact on Developing Countries**
While Chinese exports of clean energy technologies enhance access to low-carbon options in developing countries, there are concerns about economic dependency and industrial underdevelopment. Low-cost Chinese products may undercut local clean-tech industries, reinforcing patterns where developing countries export raw materials but import finished goods, possibly limiting their industrial diversification and value-add potential.
The surge in demand for critical minerals needed for clean technologies, including in countries like Morocco which is rich in minerals like lithium, cobalt, and phosphate, creates complex geopolitical and governance pressures. China’s role in securing and processing these minerals is transforming global supply chains but also exposes sustainability gaps and governance risks that need to be addressed collaboratively among China, western nations, and developing countries for a balanced transition.
**Achieving a Balanced Transition**
Achieving a just and effective global transition requires coordinated efforts to strengthen ESG standards for mining, ensure fair industrial development in the global south, and align China’s domestic and overseas climate actions more closely with global climate goals. Balancing China's competitive advantages with strengths usually associated with European and other Western actors, such as capacity building, community engagement, and responsible investment practices, is necessary for a more inclusive and balanced transition.
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- China's leadership in clean energy, as demonstrated by its 12th ranking in the Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 report, has resulted in a 1% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 despite rising economic activity and energy demand.
- Owing to China's dominance in the production and consumption of critical energy transition minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, concerns regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues have arisen due to its overseas mining operations.
- In 2024, China's solar panel exports to developing countries escalated by 32%, surpassing exports to developed economies for the first time, thereby making clean technologies more affordable for developing countries, propelling their energy transitions.
- Despite enhancing access to low-carbon options in developing countries, there are apprehensions about economic dependency and industrial underdevelopment due to the influx of low-cost Chinese clean-tech products.
- The surging demand for critical minerals in countries rich in minerals like lithium, cobalt, and phosphate, such as Morocco, poses complex geopolitical and governance challenges, with China's role in securing and processing these minerals transforming global supply chains.
