Elon Musk's xAI's post vanishes, and Kalshi denies any official pact with the venture following the incident
In a significant development, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, has formally partnered with the prediction market platform, Kalshi. This collaboration, which started in late July 2025, involves the integration of xAI's AI chatbot, Grok, into Kalshi’s federally regulated prediction market platform.
Grok, a product of xAI, leverages the company's AI models, incorporating data from Musk's social media platform X, to deliver sentiment and trend analysis for Kalshi's event-based trading. The partnership aims to enhance trading accuracy and provide an AI co-pilot experience for users engaging in outcome-based bets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Grok offers fast, digestible summaries and real-time context, aiming to help Kalshi users make more informed decisions on trades related to political, financial, and global event outcomes. Both companies have committed significant engineering resources to support and develop this partnership.
It's worth noting that there was a brief initial announcement and a later retraction due to miscommunication in May 2025. However, the partnership was confirmed and launched effectively in July 2025. Interestingly, Musk’s social platform X selected a competing prediction market, Polymarket, as its official partner, indicating xAI’s expansion into multiple marketplaces.
Kalshi's new contracts mirror traditional sports betting markets and are regulated federally through the CFTC. However, the platform continues to face legal pressure from U.S. states over its sports-related prediction contracts. Courts have so far supported Kalshi's claim that CFTC oversight makes state-level regulation irrelevant.
In a twist of events, Donald Trump, the former President, had tasked Elon Musk with spearheading cost-cutting efforts under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) during his administration. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic advisor for Kalshi. Trump has also praised Tesla during a White House livestream earlier this year.
This partnership marks a new era for Kalshi, bringing cutting-edge AI insights to its regulated prediction markets. Traders could potentially benefit from a new edge in forecasting real-world event outcomes, thanks to the integration of Grok's AI capabilities.
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