Artificial Intelligence (AI) has reportedly reached a permanent plateau, marking the supposed end of the Gartner Hype Cycle.
In the ever-evolving world of technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has reached a point of perpetual peak, a state that defies the traditional technology adoption phases as predicted by models like the Gartner Hype Cycle. This shift has significant implications for businesses, workers, investors, and society as a whole.
The perpetual peak of AI can be attributed to several factors. The attention economy effect, fuelled by the need for constant attention, viral moments, narrative momentum, and the fear of missing out (FOMO), is one such factor. AI delivers this continuously, keeping the public engaged and the hype alive. The media amplification and investment FOMO also contribute to this phenomenon, as companies and individuals rush to adopt AI to avoid being left behind.
The Gartner Hype Cycle innovation model, which predicts technology adoption phases, has been disrupted by AI. AI does not experience a trough of disillusionment, no cooling period, or a plateau of productivity as predicted by the model. Instead, AI is in a permanent plateau at maximum hype, where every new capability prevents the crash that should come.
This perpetual peak is maintained by the capability treadmill, where new capabilities are introduced before reality can disappoint. The hype refresh rate, with major announcements occurring every 2 weeks, and the moving baseline, where each breakthrough becomes the new normal, further sustain the hype.
The implications for businesses are profound. The new reality is that a trough never comes, so businesses must invest at the peak or never. The competitive dynamics are such that no one can afford to be disillusioned with AI, as companies must adopt or die, countries must compete or fall behind, individuals must use or become obsolete, and skeptics get eliminated.
For workers, the need for continuous learning is mandatory due to the lack of stabilization. The capability creep, where the baseline for AI capabilities constantly shifts, demands that workers adapt and learn new skills to stay relevant.
AI has genuine utility, rapid evolution, and infinite applications, which prevent disillusionment. The value architecture, technology stack, distribution strategy, and financial model of AI are all designed to prevent a trough.
The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 marked the innovation trigger. Despite expectations for a decline, ChatGPT's hype has been sustained by subsequent developments such as GPT-4, plugins/code interpreter, GPTs/assistants, and continuous model updates.
The social proof cascade, universal adoption of AI, creates pressure for individuals, companies, industries, and society to adopt AI. The economic lock-in, with the amount of investment in AI globally, the number of jobs dependent on AI, national competition stakes, and economic transformation commitments, prevents a trough in AI adoption.
The implications for investors are significant. The permanent FOMO pricing means that investors must buy in at the peak without the expectation of a trough.
The perpetual peak of AI also has implications for society. Permanent adaptation is required due to the lack of settling. The Recency Bias, where humans overweight recent information, causes yesterday's GPT-4 amazement to be forgotten and today's GPT-4o to dominate mindshare, with tomorrow's new model resetting the cycle.
In conclusion, the perpetual peak of AI is a new reality in technology and business. It presents challenges and opportunities, and it requires a shift in mindset for businesses, workers, investors, and society to adapt and thrive in this dynamic environment.
%20has%20reportedly%20reached%20a%20permanent%20plateau%2C%20marking%20the%20supposed%20end%20of%20the%20Gartner%20Hype%20Cycle.){kind=link}