Anticipated Q3 2024 Increase in Tesla Vehicle Sales for the First Time This Year
Tesla, the leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, is gearing up for the announcement of its Q3 2024 delivery figures on October 2, 2024. The anticipated numbers, however, show a mix of optimistic and more conservative projections among analysts.
According to a poll of 12 analyst houses by Reuters, an average projection of nearly 470,000 Tesla deliveries for Q3 2024 has been made, which would represent an increase of around 8% compared to Q3 2023. This optimistic outlook is supported by positive expectations from several analysts, including those from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who forecast Tesla deliveries exceeding 470,000 units in Q3 2024.
On the other hand, Gene Munster, a long-time Tesla investor, has reported a lower estimate of 452,000 Tesla deliveries in Q3 2024, a 4% increase from the previous year. This estimate, while still showing growth, indicates a potential slowdown in growth compared to the market consensus and some analyst projections, such as the 8% increase projected by Reuters.
The strength in China is driving positive expectations for Tesla's sales in Q3 2024, with the electric vehicle market there growing rapidly. Tesla is said to have participated with a 20% increase compared to Q3 2023 in the first 12 weeks of Q3 2024 in China. However, in Europe, Tesla is expected to have sold fewer electric vehicles than in the previous year, based on the available data so far.
For North America, it is expected that Tesla could benefit from increasing deliveries of the Cybertruck, which were not available in the third quarter of 2023. This anticipated boost in deliveries could help Tesla to meet or surpass the more optimistic projections.
Gene Munster believes that any number above the Tesla sales of around 435,000 electric vehicles in Q3 2023 would be positively received on the market. After a decrease in the first two quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year, analysts expect a better performance from July to September.
As the announcement date approaches, the market will closely watch Tesla's Q3 2024 delivery figures to gauge the company's performance and future growth prospects.
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